Predict Infection & Recovery

want to know where we’re headed?
why not predict it Yourself? 
Science & Data Baby!


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(with links)
 Common FluSARSMERS1918 FluCOVID-19 
Infection Rate (R0)1.282.600.701.40-2.802.50-4.00 ?
Mortality Rate0.10%11%35%10-20%2-5% ?
Mortality Complicator<1%~15%~15%~20%>20% ?
Incubation Period1-2 days4-6 days1-21 days2-7 days2-24 days ?
Vaccination And Curability10%-48% effectiveNo cure availableNo cure availableNo cure availableNo cure available ?

Starting PopulationThe starting population for the outbreak/pandemic. This can be the population of the globe, your country, city or even university.
Elite in Bunkers and ImmuneThis is the number of people that will never get sick – because they are naturally immune or they are hiding in bunkers or are fully isolated from the infected population.
Start DateThis is the date when the first patient is infected.
Initial InfectionsThe number of initial infections that occurred on the start date.
Infection Rate (R0)The number of additional people that are infected by a single patient that already has the virus (during the incubation period).
Incubation Period (Days)The average time from becoming infected to showing thee first symptoms.
Mortality Rate (%)How many people die of the virus as a percentage of those who become infected (an average death rate).
Mortality Complicator (%)This will increase the ‘Mortality Rate’ where there is a large number of new infected in a short period of time and is based on the increasing likelihood of mortality as more of the health care system becomes overwhelmed (more and more severe and critical cases that need medical help to survive, in a short period of time).
Virus Burnout Rate (%)This represents a reduction of the ‘Infection Rate’ over time – it represents the increased quarantine measures, progress with discovering a cure or vaccine and fewer healthy hosts to infect